Emerging technologies are starting to change the way we approach the future of work and our future careers. Many of us are now asking the hard questions about our future lives such as:
- How will artificial intelligence and automation impact the workforce over the next several years or even decade?
- Is change likely to be rapid or more gradual?
- Will a significant number of occupations simply disappear or instead just be augmented by these emerging technologies?
- What countries and industries are going to be the most affected?
Several recent, groundbreaking studies are attempting to answer these questions and more. Based on the data in these reports along with additional sources, I have developed Tableau dashboards to provide some key takeaways and visual insight.
The three major reports used to produce these dashboards
- “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne
- “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation” by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
- “The Future of Jobs Report” by the World Economic Forum.
“The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?”
This study published in 2013 examines as its name implies how susceptible current jobs are to computerisation. The researchers looked at 702 detailed occupations and implemented a novel methodology for estimating the probability of computerisation, using a Gaussian process classifier. According to their estimates, around 47% of total US employment is at risk. The authors also looked at the relationship between an occupation’s probability of computerisation and wages/educational attainment.
“Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation”
The groundbreaking report published in December 2017 analyzes the “automation potential of the global economy, the timelines over which the phenomenon could play out, and the powerful productivity boost that automation adoption could deliver.” The report also takes it a step further by examining how automation might cause labor market disruptions and scenarios in which jobs could actually be created from sources of new labor demand.
According to McKinsey, “in about 60 percent of occupations, at least one-third of the constituent activities could be automated, implying substantial workplace transformations and changes for all workers.” There is hope however that, “even when some tasks are automated, employment in those occupations may not decline but rather workers may perform new tasks.” McKinsey also makes the important distinction that one’s country will have a significant impact on job disruption. In general, developing economies are less at risk of automation than advanced economies.
“The Future of Jobs Report”
This report published by the World Economic Forum in 2018 describes how the Fourth Industrial Revolution is already affecting millions of workers and companies throughout the world. While opportunities to flourish in this new world are immense, much will depend on all concerned stakeholders instigating reform in several key areas including the following:
- Labor market policies
- Educational and training systems
- Social contracts and employment arrangements
- Business approaches to developing skills
Employees will need to embrace lifelong learning and adaptability to succeed with bold leadership coming from governments, businesses and entrepreneurs. Of particular focus in this report is understanding how emerging technologies have the potential to create new high-quality jobs while increasing human productivity, but also reduce the number of workers required for certain tasks. The researchers believe that as in previous technology revolutions, increasing demand for new roles can offset the decreasing demand for others. However, this is not a foregone conclusion and will require difficult transitions, proactive investment and significant reskilling/upskilling by millions of workers.
Below are the dashboards followed by a general description
In the near future, AI and automation are likely to disrupt many of our current jobs. Which ones are likely to be the least or most affected? “Will a Robot Take my Job” attempts to answer this question with the help from a report by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne entitled, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerisation?” Search for your specific occupation or try filtering to narrow down the results. The linear regression model will adjust as necessary. Note that with all results selected, correlation between Median Annual Wage and Probability of Automation is weak with an R-Squared value of 0.279454.
The “Workforce Automation Scenario” dashboard shows a map of the world with countries labeled as either advanced or developing economies (according to IMF classification). With the help of recent automation workforce studies as information is available, each country shows its early (most rapid)/midpoint automation adoption scenario. This is the % of workers likely needing to switch occupational categories and learn new skills. They also show the average % of the workforce that will need reskilling and % of GDP public spending on training. Select a country on the map or search for it to get the corresponding data.
In 2018, the World Economic Forum released “The Future of Jobs Report.” Two of the many useful data sets contained in the report include the technology adoption by industry and share of companies surveyed, 2018-2022 (%) and the projected (2022) effects on the workforce by industry and proportion of companies (%). This gives us good insight into which emerging technologies specific industries believe they will adopt by 2022 and how this is projected to effect the workforce. By default, view the data for all industries by scrolling to the right or filter your view to just one or several industries at a time. The most significant values (50% – 95%) are highlighted in red, on a light to dark scale.
Developed by Ryan Mangels (https://www.ryanmangels.com). Ryan enjoys using data visualization and data storytelling to help people understand the impact emerging technologies will have on the future of work and everyday life.